I am thrilled to announce that I have been awarded an NWO OC SHH XS Grant (EUR 50,000) for my research project titled Geopolitical Shocks, Physical Climate Risk, and Climate Coalition Stability.
International climate coalitions are the cornerstone of global mitigation policy, yet they are routinely disrupted by geopolitical shocks. Existing coalition models are deterministic and static, abstracting from the risks that define real climate negotiations. This project develops the first dynamic framework for climate coalition formation under stochastic geopolitical and physical climate risk. It asks how these risks affect equilibrium coalition size, carbon prices, and the asset prices. Causal empirical analysis uses major geopolitical events and climate disasters as natural experiments. The results contribute to the design of resilient climate agreements and the pricing of coalition-fragility risk in financial markets.
